China's Oil Demand Remains Strong With 10% On-Year Jump in October

Friday, Nov 20, 2009

HONG KONG, Nov. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Platts -- China's apparent petroleum demand in October jumped 10.2% from a year ago as the world's second largest oil consumer ramped up crude processing rates, even as Beijing released a bunch of positive economic data for the month.

Chinese oil demand reached an estimated 33.886 million metric tons (mt) last month compared with 30.75 million metric tons in October 2008, a Platts analysis of official data showed November 19.

October was the second consecutive month Chinese oil demand posted double-digit growth year over year. The country's oil demand climbed by 12.6% in September from a year earlier.

However, the October demand was just a tad higher than September's 33.8 million mt.

Chinese refineries processed a total of 33.29 million metric tons (7.87 million barrels per day) of crude in October, surpassing the previous all-time high of 33.11 million metric tons set in July.

"Chinese industrial production and retail sales rose by more than 16% on year in October according to official data, but the China growth story continues to be driven by domestic demand rather than a recovery in the country's export markets," said Vandana Hari, Asia news director at Platts. "This raises questions about the shape of its economic recovery after Beijing's stimulus package wears out."

"Among short-term factors, expectations of the government announcing a hike in domestic products prices in late October is said to have spurred stockpiling of fuel, which explains the high refining rates," Hari explained.

China raised both gasoline and gasoil prices by Yuan 480/mt ($70.30/mt) effective November 10 in keeping with a product pricing mechanism in force since the start of 2009, which tracks a basket of international crude prices to keep domestic fuel rates broadly in alignment.

Meanwhile, higher crude throughput at the refineries in October coincided with a 12.3% spike in crude imports during the month compared with September and an 11.6% slide in refined products imports month-on-month. October crude imports of 19.33 million metric tons represented a 19.6% increase from a year ago and were the second highest monthly purchase by China historically.

  MONTHLY TRADE DATA IN MILLION METRIC TONS:

                Oct'09  Oct'08  % Chg  Sep'09  Aug'09  Jul'09  Jun'09 May'09
  Net crude
   imports       18.97   15.86  +19.6   16.83   17.92   19.20   16.31  16.62

  Crude
   production    16.26   16.55   -1.8   15.72   16.32   16.14   15.71  16.03

  Apparent
   demand*       33.89   30.75  +10.2   33.80   33.02   34.92   33.35  33.23

Platts calculates China's apparent or implied oil demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at the domestic refineries and net oil product imports, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs.

The government releases data on imports, exports, domestic crude production and refinery throughput data, but does not give official data on the country's actual oil consumption figure and oil stockpiles.

Platts releases its monthly calculation of China's apparent demand between the 18th and 26th of every month via press release and via its website. Any use of this information must be appropriately attributed to Platts.

For more information on crude oil, visit the Platts website at www.platts.com. For Chinese-language information on oil and the energy and metals markets, visit http://www.platts.cn/.

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Source: PR Newswire